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[2007-11-09] Pacific Arctic Group Regional Synthesis of Ocean Data and Information --A Contribution to the International Polar Year (IPY) Global Synthesis

Pacific Arctic Group

Regional Synthesis of Ocean Data and Information

A Contribution to the International Polar Year (IPY)
Global Synthesis

INTRODUCTION
The Pacific Arctic Group (PAG) is a subsidiary body under the International Arctic Science Committee (IASC), which is an affiliate of the International Council of Science (ICSU).  From its inception, the PAG has focused its thinking on the “Pacific sector” of the Arctic, roughly defined as the marine area from the Northern Bering Sea into the Chukchi Sea and adjacent Seas, and extending into the deep basins of the Arctic Ocean.  Recently, the PAG has adopted a series of themes (see Attachment 1) to guide its work.  Most PAG members are involved in the International Polar Year (IPY) and will be collecting various types of data in the PAG region during the IPY period.  At its last meeting, the PAG agreed to approach the IPY International Program Office (IPY IPO) with a proposal to conduct a synthesis of ocean information on the PAG area as a contribution to the IPY’s planned global synthesis (see Attachment 2).  The IPY IPO has accepted this proposal, and both the IASC and the Arctic Ocean Studies Board (AOSB) have endorsed this synthesis as well.  This document provides more details of the planned PAG Regional Synthesis.

PURPOSE AND OBJECTIVES
The PAG Regional Synthesis (PARS) will be a flagship product of the PAG and a major contribution to the IPY.  It will serve as the means to bring together the most up-to-date knowledge of the PAG region and make that information available to the broad community.  The PARS will focus on the IPY period, but will use data and information from earlier periods for context and trend analysis.  The PARS will be an enduring legacy of both the IPY and the PAG itself.  Specific objectives of the PARS will be to:

  1. Summarize the state of knowledge from research, observation and modeling activities related to the PAG area over a defined time period.  For example, target the 20th century for this background analysis
  2. Identify major new findings and understanding of state and processes in the PAG area during the 21st century and especially the IPY period
  3. Using best available model projections, prepare hypotheses regarding the future evolution of the physics and biology of the region over the next few decades
  4. Share information on current modeling activities covering the PAG synthesis area and work toward a shared modeling system
  5. Prepare scientific conclusions and recommendations to guide future PAG science activities
  6. Specifically for the PAG region, identify critical marine components of a future Arctic Observing Network

 

APPROACH
The PAG Regional Synthesis (PARS) will be conducted on a voluntary basis by PAG members and other interested scientists.  The PARS will consist of an aggregated database, various analyses of the data, a modeling system with a domain that includes the synthesis area, and model-based analyses and projections.  A peer-review process, possibly through an established scientific journal, will be used to publish the results.  It is envisioned that the PAG members will first identify a steering group (PARS SG) to organize the synthesis and will empower the PARS SG to take further actions, such as:

  1. Prepare an outline for the PARS that defines the major sections and sub-sections
  2. Prepare a detailed budget and suggest possible sources of funding
  3. Identify lead authors for each major section
  4. Create writing teams to prepare sections and sub-sections of an integrated synthesis of the region that would be published through a peer-review process
  5. Seek to assemble an integrated data base to support the synthesis

The PAG would review the plan created by the PARS SG and make a final determination on completing the PARS.

SCOPE
Defining the scope of the synthesis is a critical early step.  The PARS SG will be asked to define the scope as part of their planning process.  Issues to be considered include:

  1. Geographic area over which data is to be considered
  2. Time period to be considered, perhaps a different time period for different data types
  3. Science questions to be addressed by the synthesis and types of data to be included in the synthesis
  4. Linkage between observational data and modeling
  5. In addition to a synthesis report written for the science literature, should there be a simpler report for the non-scientist

Should this be deleted or kept?  The PARS SG may decide to present two alternatives regarding the scope of the synthesis.  One alternative may be for a rather narrow synthesis that could be completed by a small number of enthusiastic authors.  A second alternative may be for something larger that would address a greater number of science issues, but may be more difficult to organize and complete.

TIME LINE
The IPY IPO is planning for a major IPY scientific conference late in 2010, with an interim conference in July 2008.  The PAG intends to undertake the PARS on a timeline that allows for its major findings and conclusions to be presented at the IPY conference in 2010.  A completed PARS plan and description of actions underway should be presented to the IPY conference in 2008.  To meet these major milestones, the PAG should plan to meet the following intermediate milestones:

  1. Create PARS Steering Group by fall 2007
  2. PARS SG prepares implementation plan by early 2008 (This implementation plan will include an update of all dates below.) and presents to PAG meeting at ASSW in March 2008 at Syktivkar, Russia
  3. PAG makes final decision on conduct of the PARS at ASSW in March 2008
  4. Identify lead authors in early 2008
  5. Hold modeling workshop in late winter/early spring 2008
  6. Hold initial lead authors workshop by late spring 2008
  7. Identify section writing teams and begin writing tasks in late 2008
  8. Produce first draft of synthesis report in summer 2009
  9. Hold lead and key authors workshop in fall 2009
  10. Produce symposium-ready draft in early 2010
  11. Hold lead and key authors workshop in fall 2010
  12. Present interim results at symposium in late 2010
  13. Final draft of synthesis in early 2011
  14. Peer review during spring 2011
  15. Hold final lead and key authors workshop in summer 2011
  16. Submit final synthesis for publication by end of 2011

 

ESTIMATED COSTS

The major cost items in conducting this synthesis will be people’s time, travel and communications, modeling activities, graphics preparation, editing, and publication.  To the greatest extent possible, we should try to have people’s time donated or covered by each person’s agency or country.  We will have to find financial donors, including the PAG member agencies or countries, for the other activities.


PARTICIPANTS

The critical first step is for the PAG to create the PARS Steering Group and give them the authority to complete the planning and budgeting process.  The PARS SG should elect a Chair who will then organize the work of the PARS SG.  To the extent possible the PARS SG will work by email, but meetings of the group will likely be essential at critical stages of the PARS.